International trade as a percentage of GDP soared in the post-war years. In this issue of our Globalization Outlook we ask:
- was it ever viable that levels of international trade would continue to soar on the previous trajectory or was there always going to be a natural limit?
- will trade slowdown really ‘shipwreck’ the global economy?
Germany
- The German economy is stalling and starting to reap the consequences of an economy addicted to exports and the long-standing refusal to stimulate domestic demand
- Yet, Germany has more fiscal space than most to soften the impact of a downturn
US-China
- The US domestic political climate increasingly seems to mitigate against resolution of the US-China trade dispute
- The only question is whether this will be a slow war of attrition or whether there will be significant escalation
- Senator Elizabeth Warren’s new trade plan should put paid to anyone’s delusion that, following a Trump presidency, the trade landscape will revert to what it used to be
EU-Mercosur
- An EU-MERCOSUR trade deal has been signed – having been 20 years in the making
- EU farmers have raised objections
- Will the deal easily be ratified by the EU 27
A UK-US Trade Deal?
- US National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has put forward the same approach to a potential UK-US trade deal as we have recommended in our book – Backlash: Saving globalisation from itself
- A sector-by-sector approach starting with those sectors where quick deals may be relatively easy and then building on those over time towards a comprehensive agreement
