The Eurozone economy is not looking healthy.
The German engine is stalling, global trade tensions will not abate any time soon, and President Donald Trump may soon turn his fire on Europe.
China has allowed the renminbi to sink, thereby exporting deflationary pressures. Large economies like Italy, France and Spain are still in no condition to withstand a downturn. Few have space for significant fiscal stimulus while staying within “the rules” – such as they are.
The continued flawed and incomplete structure of the euro and the minimal ammunition left in the arsenal of the European Central Bank will make it difficult for it to ride effectively to the rescue, as it has done in the past.
The last thing anyone needs to add to this unpleasant cocktail is a no-deal Brexit. And yet, it can – possibly – be avoided….