It’s only a matter of time before markets recognise the very negative outlook for discretionaries


The critical issue is the economy. How much of the economy, how much of the tax base, how much employment, and how much of the wealth of the elites is tied to discretionary sectors?” So asks Tim Morgan in the discussion about his latest piece.

It seems that the collapse of the discretionary markets and associated essential markets is about to happen. 

This will have massive implications for unemployment.  Bearing in mind that about 40 per cent of employment is in discretionary activities.

I guess that the rate of collapse will depend on the indebtedness of discretionary businesses. Will the survivors hang on hoping that better times are around the corner? Will the government pour money into propping up these businesses? For a while, perhaps.

Many of the 40 per cent in employment will be looking to move out of their homes. They will be downsizing and sharing houses with relatives in similar states.

I wonder how the telecom companies will react. I wouldn’t be surprised if landlines become obsolete quite soon. Which will put an end to my blogging.

Food shopping will change in ways I cannot guess. Will new food businesses emerge? Shops selling food, fresh and processed, which are run in their own homes by families previously employed in discretionary activities.

Government subsidies will hide the shrinking economy. And maybe, unexpectedly, finance the emerging grassroots economy.

Could the dramatic changes being made by the government, in reality, turn out to herald the collapse of top-down systems and the emergence of grassroots local economies? Not planned. Just happening.  Not seen at first, in the chaos of government policies…

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Radix is the radical centre think tank. We welcome all contributions which promote system change, challenge established notions and re-imagine our societies. The views expressed here are those of the individual contributor and not necessarily shared by Radix.

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