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Has China Destabilised World Trade?

glob-cover-dec-19

In this issue of Globalization Outlook we look at the impact of China on trade, the potential reform of the WTO, the impact of trade on German voting patterns and why we need to do better with economic statistics

• The entry of China into the world trading system was a stochastic shock that led to a precipitous decline in US manufacturing employment

• Previous trade agreements entered into by the US did not have the same destabilizing effect

• It is the entry of China with its large manufacturing base and lack of reciprocal access NOT trade in general that has led to destabilisation

• The G20 meeting in Buenos Aires calls for reform of the WTO

• APEC summit in Papua New Guinea fails to agree a joint statement as China objects to commitment to fight ‘unfair trade practices’.

• New German analysis suggests that regions most exposed to import substitution have highest rates of voting for AfD – largely at the expense of the SPD

• Macro-statistics fail to reflect people’s lived experiences undermining faith in ‘experts’ and institutions

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