Radix Big Tent’s word of the year at the beginning of 2024 was “Dull”. It seemed to us that a period of stability after the first Trump Presidency, Covid, Ukraine, the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the cost-of-living crisis might serve us all well.
And yet it has not come to pass. With elections in more than sixty countries around the globe, there was always going to be lots of political change, but 2024 was a particularly bad year for incumbents.
The defeat of the Conservatives in Britain was a surprise to absolutely no one and reflected a government that had long run out of steam, but ruling parties were also turned out in countries as diverse as Portugal and Panama, Ghana and Botswana. In South Korea, having lost control of the National Assembly, the President briefly turned – unsuccessfully – to martial law, while in France, Japan, India and South Africa those in power were forced into coalition, against all expectations. In the US, change failed to prevent change: the Democrats’ attempt to cling to power by jettisoning Biden was an chimera and the return of Trump looks as unpredictable as ever.
But perhaps, the instinct for a moment of calm, while understandable, is not after all what we need.
The hope that Trump – once reinstalled – will hand over the reins of power to some mystical adults in the room and go golfing looks without foundation. But also perhaps his unpredictability will turn out to be a boon, causing those that might otherwise test his patience to think twice.
Trump is above all a lucky politician although I am sure he would argue otherwise. He rode the wave a strong Obama economy into his first Presidential term and is now set to ride Biden’s boom into his second.
Trump might be about to blow his inheritance on a tidal wave of tariffs and the predictable thing would be for him to do what he actually said he would during his campaign, but already the reality looks set to fall short of his worst election rhetoric, which will stave off the worst damage to the US economy of Trump-economics.
And elsewhere his unpredictability may bring real advantages.
The ‘mad man’ principle of foreign affairs has been much commented upon, but may be no less true for that. Trump is widely expected to withdraw military support from Ukraine, but he will not want to appear weak and Zelenskyy appears to be making friends. Trump’s unpredictability may just be enough to force a deal if not on equitable terms, as least on terms that don’t provide encouragement to Putin for further adventurism.
Meanwhile, uncertainty about America’s stance in the Middle East, may force the region’s numerous players to react more cautiously to a situation that really does demand caution. With Trump in the White House no one – not even Netanyahu – is likely to be believe they have carte blanche to act as they like.
So everywhere, the transactional dealmaker seems set to assume power, just at the point when everyone is ready to make a deal.
In contrast, in Europe, the inability to rely on the US to bail them out economically and militarily will force new governments in Germany and France to stand on their own two feet and while northern Europe may be struggling for growth, whisper it quietly but the Iberian peninsula -and Spain in particular – is unpredictably performing its own little economic miracle. Perhaps the Germans and the French will look south for economic solutions, and east to the new Syrian regime to relieve some of the pressure from their respective anti-immigration far right parties.
More broadly, the events of the last decade demonstrate the need for all governments to be more flexible and agile in an uncertain world. Back in the UK this is a lesson that the dull and stable – but flat-footed – Starmer will need to learn in 2025.
It is impossible to know what fates the year ahead hold for us, but the complacency of the ‘end of history’ governance of the late 90s/early 00s is surely dead and the need for governments to prepare their countries to be more fleet of foot – economically, socially, culturally and militarily – rather than merely, stable and resilient may be what we actually need in the year ahead.
Wishing you all an unpredictable new year.
