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Is this the end of the road for monetary policy?

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Has monetary policy reached the end of the road?

That is certainly an impression one is justified having reached following Mr Draghi’s press conference where he announced lower interest rates and a resumption of asset purchases.

Mr Draghi left nobody in any doubt that the outlook is not good for the Eurozone economy. And that the Bank is doing what it can to stimulate lending and investment.

Yet, we all know that businesses do not borrow and invest simply because money is cheap. They invest when they see a positive future that will give them a good return on their investments. With a negative outlook, lenders may be being pushed to lend, but that’s not much good if nobody wants to borrow to invest.

The difficulty for the ECB is that it needs to justify intervention but in doing so risks further undermining business confidence by spreading pessimism about the economic outlook. Finessing this conflict depends on spreading the belief that the Bank’s intervention will give the economy the boost it needs thereby making borrowing for investment worthwhile.

Listening to Mr Draghi, it was difficult to move oneself to such a level of belief. The tools deployed seem tired. The mood music did not generate much conviction that they would work. Gone are the days of ‘whatever it takes… and believe me it will be enough’. I would be surprised if anyone left the room believing it would be enough.

Mr Draghi also made the point that much of the outlook did not factor in potential future shocks such as a hard Brexit and an escalating trade war. Yet more downers.

Hence his plea for the need for fiscal stimulus.

But here again, there was some difficult dancing around to be done. While some countries, Germany prime among them, have ample room for stimulus, others do not. Germany is not minded to use its available firepower to the full, while others, such as Italy, would like to intervene but are hemmed in by dire finances and Eurozone rules. Mr Draghi tried his best to navigate around these difficulties but, again, his statements did not emanate much hope.

A further issue is that the Bank has decided, maybe unsurprisingly, to stick to, if I may put it this way, the conventional form of ‘unconventional policy’. Yet more asset purchases (for which it claims there is no upper limit), and lower interest rates. The distributional consequences of these tools are well known – consequences that may end up generating yet more political backlash when we least need it.

Hemmed in by Eurozone rules, the inherent conservatism of central bankers, and fear of backlash, using monetary policy to put money directly in people’s pockets is not considered. The ECB is reduced to begging governments to do something.

Overall, one cannot help but be left with two impressions.

The first is that the Eurozone is simply not working. Economies seem to be diverging rather than converging. The euro is stuck in its half-baked form – it’s hard to imagine going back and seemingly politically impossible to go forward. The hopes and dreams of those who pushed for the euro as an instrument of convergence, cohesion, broad prosperity and eventual political union have turned to ashes.

As many, including us, warned, the euro project is in danger of failing the people of the Eurozone, especially in the South; the very people to whom it was supposed to bring prosperity.

The second is the difficulty of managing the artificial separation between monetary and fiscal policy. In these times when central bankers are jealously trying to guard an independence of action that is under assault from all sides, the inability to co-ordinate fiscal and monetary policy is being shown up as unsustainable.

The ECB is left in an impossible position. Sadly, its big bazooka is starting to look like it may be morphing into a toy gun.

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Radix is the radical centre think tank. We welcome all contributions which promote system change, challenge established notions and re-imagine our societies. The views expressed here are those of the individual contributor and not necessarily shared by Radix.

Comments

  1. Laurence says

    The greatest failing of the Euro was that it should have come about as a result of a Federal Europe with a sufficiently strong central authority that could direct significant funds from one part of the eurozone to another, just as London’s taxes subsidise the rest of the UK. Instead, it was introduced at a time when the central authority was weak and individual countries (notably Germany) could veto the spending of money in other parts of the eurozone based on arbitrary deficit rules. Even then the Euro might have worked if it had been created as a common currency alongside, rather than replacing, existing national currencies. That way, asymmetric shocks could have been dealt with by devaluation against the common currency or, in extreme cases, by leaving the common currency as the national currency would still exist. The experiences of the ERM should have warned the creators of the Euro of the dangers of binding different economies together even tighter, but it seems that they learned the wrong lessons.

    • Joe Zammit-Lucia says

      Thanks Laurence

      I couldn’t agree more.

      I believe the issue is that the Euro was seen as a way to force progress to the political union when it should have been, as you pointed out, the other way around. The cart came before the horse. Now the Euro risks becoming an instrument of divisions rather than cohesion.

      It shows the folly of believing that economics ends up driving politics when the reality is exactly the other way around.

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(We will process your data in accordance with our <span class="pp"><a href="https://radixuk.org/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a></span>. You may withdraw this consent at any time by <a href="mailto:[email protected]">emailing us</a> or clicking “unsubscribe” at the bottom of our emails).</label> </li></ul></div></li><li id='field_5_6' class='gfield gform_validation_container field_sublabel_below field_description_below gfield_visibility_visible' ><label class='gfield_label' for='input_5_6' >Email</label><div class='ginput_container'><input name='input_6' id='input_5_6' type='text' value='' autocomplete='off'/></div><div class='gfield_description' id='gfield_description__6'>This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.</div></li> </ul></div> <div class='gform_footer top_label'> <input type='submit' id='gform_submit_button_5' class='gform_button button' value='SUBSCRIBE' tabindex='71' onclick='if(window["gf_submitting_5"]){return false;} if( !jQuery("#gform_5")[0].checkValidity || jQuery("#gform_5")[0].checkValidity()){window["gf_submitting_5"]=true;} ' onkeypress='if( event.keyCode == 13 ){ if(window["gf_submitting_5"]){return false;} if( !jQuery("#gform_5")[0].checkValidity || jQuery("#gform_5")[0].checkValidity()){window["gf_submitting_5"]=true;} jQuery("#gform_5").trigger("submit",[true]); }' /> <input type='hidden' name='gform_ajax' value='form_id=5&amp;title=&amp;description=&amp;tabindex=64' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='is_submit_5' value='1' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='gform_submit' value='5' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='gform_unique_id' value='' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='state_5' value='WyJbXSIsIjg1ZGYwZWM3YzAyMDRmYTcyZDYxNmIwMWJiNmFhYzVhIl0=' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='gform_target_page_number_5' id='gform_target_page_number_5' value='0' /> <input type='hidden' class='gform_hidden' name='gform_source_page_number_5' id='gform_source_page_number_5' value='1' /> <input type='hidden' name='gform_field_values' value='' /> </div> </form> </div> <iframe style='display:none;width:0px;height:0px;' src='about:blank' name='gform_ajax_frame_5' id='gform_ajax_frame_5' title='Ajax Frame'>This iframe contains the logic required to handle Ajax powered Gravity Forms.</iframe> <script type='text/javascript'>jQuery(document).ready(function($){gformInitSpinner( 5, 'https://radixuk.org/wp-content/plugins/gravityforms/images/spinner.gif' );jQuery('#gform_ajax_frame_5').on('load',function(){var contents = jQuery(this).contents().find('*').html();var is_postback = contents.indexOf('GF_AJAX_POSTBACK') >= 0;if(!is_postback){return;}var form_content = jQuery(this).contents().find('#gform_wrapper_5');var is_confirmation = jQuery(this).contents().find('#gform_confirmation_wrapper_5').length > 0;var is_redirect = contents.indexOf('gformRedirect(){') >= 0;var is_form = form_content.length > 0 && ! is_redirect && ! is_confirmation;var mt = parseInt(jQuery('html').css('margin-top'), 10) + parseInt(jQuery('body').css('margin-top'), 10) + 100;if(is_form){jQuery('#gform_wrapper_5').html(form_content.html());if(form_content.hasClass('gform_validation_error')){jQuery('#gform_wrapper_5').addClass('gform_validation_error');} else {jQuery('#gform_wrapper_5').removeClass('gform_validation_error');}setTimeout( function() { /* delay the scroll by 50 milliseconds to fix a bug in chrome */ jQuery(document).scrollTop(jQuery('#gform_wrapper_5').offset().top - mt); }, 50 );if(window['gformInitDatepicker']) {gformInitDatepicker();}if(window['gformInitPriceFields']) {gformInitPriceFields();}var current_page = jQuery('#gform_source_page_number_5').val();gformInitSpinner( 5, 'https://radixuk.org/wp-content/plugins/gravityforms/images/spinner.gif' );jQuery(document).trigger('gform_page_loaded', [5, current_page]);window['gf_submitting_5'] = false;}else if(!is_redirect){var confirmation_content = jQuery(this).contents().find('.GF_AJAX_POSTBACK').html();if(!confirmation_content){confirmation_content = contents;}setTimeout(function(){jQuery('#gform_wrapper_5').replaceWith(confirmation_content);jQuery(document).scrollTop(jQuery('#gf_5').offset().top - mt);jQuery(document).trigger('gform_confirmation_loaded', [5]);window['gf_submitting_5'] = false;}, 50);}else{jQuery('#gform_5').append(contents);if(window['gformRedirect']) {gformRedirect();}}jQuery(document).trigger('gform_post_render', [5, current_page]);} );} );</script><script type='text/javascript'> jQuery(document).bind('gform_post_render', function(event, formId, currentPage){if(formId == 5) {if(typeof Placeholders != 'undefined'){ Placeholders.enable(); }} } );jQuery(document).bind('gform_post_conditional_logic', function(event, formId, fields, isInit){} );</script><script type='text/javascript'> jQuery(document).ready(function(){jQuery(document).trigger('gform_post_render', [5, 1]) } ); </script>
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[gravityform id=6 title=false description=false ajax=true tabindex=999]
<div class='gf_browser_unknown gform_wrapper' id='gform_wrapper_6' ><div id='gf_6' class='gform_anchor' tabindex='-1'></div><form method='post' enctype='multipart/form-data' target='gform_ajax_frame_6' id='gform_6' action='/opinion/is-this-the-end-of-the-road-for-monetary-policy/#gf_6'> <div class='gform_body'><ul id='gform_fields_6' class='gform_fields top_label form_sublabel_below description_below'><li id='field_6_5' class='gfield gravity_head gfield_html gfield_html_formatted gfield_no_follows_desc field_sublabel_below field_description_below gfield_visibility_visible' ><h3>Before you go!</h3> <p>Stay up to date with what's happening at Radix. Get email notifications</p></li><li id='field_6_1' class='gfield gfield_contains_required field_sublabel_hidden_label field_description_below hidden_label gfield_visibility_visible' ><label class='gfield_label gfield_label_before_complex' >Name<span class='gfield_required'>*</span></label><div class='ginput_complex ginput_container no_prefix has_first_name no_middle_name has_last_name no_suffix gf_name_has_2 ginput_container_name' id='input_6_1'> <span id='input_6_1_3_container' class='name_first' > <input type='text' name='input_1.3' id='input_6_1_3' value='' aria-label='First name' tabindex='1000' aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" placeholder='First Name*'/> <label for='input_6_1_3' class='hidden_sub_label screen-reader-text'>First</label> </span> <span id='input_6_1_6_container' class='name_last' > <input type='text' name='input_1.6' id='input_6_1_6' value='' aria-label='Last name' tabindex='1002' aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" placeholder='Last Name*'/> <label for='input_6_1_6' class='hidden_sub_label screen-reader-text'>Last</label> </span> </div></li><li id='field_6_2' class='gfield gfield_contains_required field_sublabel_below field_description_below hidden_label gfield_visibility_visible' ><label class='gfield_label' for='input_6_2' >Email<span class='gfield_required'>*</span></label><div class='ginput_container ginput_container_email'> <input name='input_2' id='input_6_2' type='email' value='' class='large' tabindex='1004' placeholder='Email*' aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" /> </div></li><li id='field_6_4' class='gfield gf-conf-check gfield_contains_required field_sublabel_below field_description_below hidden_label gfield_visibility_visible' ><label class='gfield_label' >Confirmation<span class='gfield_required'>*</span></label><div class='ginput_container ginput_container_checkbox'><ul class='gfield_checkbox' id='input_6_4'><li class='gchoice_6_4_1'> <input name='input_4.1' type='checkbox' value='Please keep me updated on new website content and Radix news. (We will process your data in accordance with our <span class="pp"><a href="https://radixuk.org/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a></span>. You may withdraw this consent at any time by &lt;a href=&quot;"mailto:[email protected]"&quot;&gt;emailing us&lt;/a&gt; or clicking “unsubscribe” at the bottom of our emails).' id='choice_6_4_1' tabindex='1005' /> <label for='choice_6_4_1' id='label_6_4_1'>Please keep me updated on new website content and Radix news. (We will process your data in accordance with our <span class="pp"><a href="https://radixuk.org/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a></span>. 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