With Lib Dem activists gathering this weekend in Brighton to celebrate the election of the largest third-party Parliamentary group in the past hundred years, there could easily be a sense of job done.
Apart from Jeremy Hunt’s seat of Godalming and Ash, the party not only picked up every one of its 2024 targets, but pretty much every Tory-facing target for the next election too. It’s a great problem to have, but the challenge for the party is to know what to do next and then put together a plan to get there.
Despite their 72 seats, the Lib Dems arguably have less Parliamentary influence than at any time since 2010. Yes, they will now be entitled to more Parliamentary platforms – automatic questions at PMQs, a select committee chair and so on – but in terms of influencing decision-making Vince Cable’s eleven colleagues from 2017-2019 had more actual power to impact May’s minority government, while Jo Swinson was able to dictate the timing of the following general election, whether successfully or not!
Now, with the size of Labour’s majority, the Lib Dems’ chances of directly influencing legislation is just about zero. What’s more, as a consequence of their success, the Lib Dems are now only second in 27 seats nationwide (20 Conservative, 6 Labour and one Plaid). The path for progress is extremely narrow and too short, even were they to retain every one of their current haul and win every other seat in which they are currently challengers.
I say this not to criticise the current leadership or their 2024 strategy, but to flag the extent of the challenge ahead and the risk of fighting the last election rather than the next.
As winning all its first and second places will not be enough, the party will need to come from further back elsewhere. As, however, Prof John Curtice – who is, by law, suffixed ‘Election Guru’ – points out in his Trendy podcast, outside these top seats the party polled just 6% and in many of these seats the party is not even third, but fourth or fifth or even worse. It is a very long way from there to challenge for victory.
The traditional Lib Dem route to relevance between elections has been via by-election success, and who’s to say that their formidable campaign machine won’t claim a scalp or two in the next five years? Given, however, that it is by-elections in the seats of struggling governing parties that tend to offer challengers the greatest opportunities, it is more likely that Reform UK (second to Labour in 89 seats) or the Greens or SNP (39 and 37 respectively) would be the beneficiaries.
In 2024, the Lib Dems’ winning strategy was to focus on seats, not vote share. Now there is little else left to gain without significantly increasing vote share. It is not an impossible ambition: since the turn of the century both Kennedy and Clegg have achieved over 20% of the national vote and while such a result would bring few additional seats into play it would be unlikely to be achieved without a parallel further collapse in the Conservative vote, putting the Lib Dems into second place in terms of popularity with the opportunity to claim the mantle of the official Opposition.
For such a scenario to play out what will it take?
First, the party cannot expect to grow much further without a clear alternative vision of the country. Remain v Leave is no longer the debate in pure policy terms, but the liberal (small l) values of the remain side – supported by 48% of the populace and rising – could offer a template for that vision which distinguishes the Lib Dems from all its competitors. Could the Lib Dems become the party of openness and optimism, supporters of human nature and against government interference, instinctively economically liberal and decentralising, in contrast to Labour?
Second, the party will need a single national message. At the last election its selection of policies based on the core concerns of voters in liberal-leaning, middle class seats served it well, but was not (and was not intended to be) a platform on which to build vote share. In 2029, the Lib Dems will need a flagship policy which supports the vision above. A narrative around education might fit the bill. A narrative around the economic case for internationalism and immigration would be more risky but would stand out…
And finally, the party will need leadership. Ed Davey had a brilliant election, showing warmth and a self-deprecating humanity. He has undoubtedly earned the right to lead the party into the next election. But few, with the greatest respect, would describe him (or even leader-in-waiting Daisy Cooper) as inspiring or charismatic. That’s ok, but one huge advantage that the party’s success has given it is a massively enhanced talent pool from which to choose. This is an advantage it holds over all its potential rivals (and looking at the Conservative Party leadership candidates I include them in this assessment).
This is a long way from a fully-fledged strategy, but to echo Donald Trump’s debate message it might be a “concept of a plan”.
Devise and shape a vision and message, take the time now to build a leadership team that can deliver them to every corner of the country, and the party may just about have somewhere to go next.
